DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES OF THE PYANJ BASIN ZONE

05:32:47

January    
Mon 24-01-2022

BASIN POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHY AND EMPLOYMENT

Population

According to the Tajikistan Statistical Agency, the total population of the Basin as of January 1, 2018 was 1,751,500 people. The urban population is 295,300 (16.9%) and rural 1,456,200 (83.1%). Over the past 11 years (2007-2017), the population of the basin has increased by 334,600 people or 23.6%, including an increase in rural areas by 287,100 people or 24.6% and in urban areas by 47,600 thousand people or 19.2%. The average annual population growth rate was 2.1%, including 2.2% in rural areas and 1.7% in urban areas.

Administrative Division of the Basin

Geographically, the territory of the basin is part of the Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and the Khatlon Oblast of Tajikistan. On the territory of the basin there are 19 districts, 2 cities, 9 urban settlements and 122 jamoats. The administrative division of the basin is in Figure 1, while Table 1 shows the main features of the centers.

Table 1: Population of the Pyanj River Basin in 2018 (thousands)

Districts and towns

Total population

Including

Avg. density

per 1 km2

Towns

Villages

Jamoats

town

village

Khorog

29.9

29.9

0

1,708.6

1

   

Vanj

33.6

0

33.6

7.6

   

6

Darvoz

23.3

0

23.3

8.3

   

4

Ishkoshim

32.2

0

32.2

8.7

   

7

Roshtkala

26.8

0

26.8

6.2

   

6

Rushon

25.3

0

25.3

4.3

   

7

Shugnon

37.1

0

37.1

8.1

   

7

Murgab

15.3

0

15.3

0.4

   

6

Kulyab

208

104.4

103.6

693.3

1

 

4

M.A. Hamadoni

143.9

23.2

120.7

287.8

 

1

7

Muminobod

90.8

13.7

77.1

100.9

 

1

6

Farkhor

163.7

24.4

139.3

136.4

 

1

9

S.Shohin

53.4

0

53.4

23.2

   

7

Dangara

150.3

28.4

121.9

75.2

 

1

8

Vose

207.7

23.8

183.9

259.6

 

1

7

Khovaling

56.3

0

56.3

33.1

   

5

Temurmalik

67.7

10.7

57.1

67.7

 

1

6

Baljuvon

29

0

29

22.3

   

5

Dusti

110.6

6.5

104.1

92.2

 

1

5

Pyanj

113.8

12.3

101.5

126.4

 

1

5

Jaykhun

132.7

18

114.7

132.7

 

1

5

Total for PRB

1,751.5

295.3

1,456.2

22.4

2

9

122

Figure 1: Administrative Division of Pyanj River Basin

Demography

Table 2 shows the increase in population of the basin during the last 10 years.

Table 2: Population Dynamics of the Basin by Water Resource Zones (WRZ)

 

Population in thousands

Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Badakhshan WRZ

Urban

27.6

27.7

27.8

28.1

28.4

28.6

28.8

29.2

29.2

29.5

29.9

Rural

175.4

176

181.1

178.4

180.1

181.6

183.3

185.4

188.1

190.7

193.6

Total

203

203.7

208.9

206.5

208.5

210.2

212.1

214.6

217.3

220.2

223.5

Kulyab WRZ

Urban

192.4

196.2

199.2

203.3

207.4

210.8

214.0

217.3

221.3

224.7

228.6

Rural

746.6

761.5

778.3

802.1

820.9

840.2

857.5

876.8

897.2

920.4

942.3

Total

939

957.7

977.5

1005.4

1028.3

1051

1071.5

1094.1

1118.5

1145.1

1170.8

Lower Pyanj WRZ

Urban

27.7

28.4

28.9

29.80

30.7

31.6

33.1

34.2

35.4

36.1

36.8

Rural

247.1

252.8

258.4

266.8

273.3

279.9

286.6

294.7

303.5

312.4

320.3

Total

274.8

281.2

287.3

296.6

304

311.5

319.7

328.9

338.9

348.5

357.1

Source: Regions of the RT 2014-2017. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan as of 1 January 2018. The Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Another important indicator characterizing the relationship between water use and demographic indicators is population density per 1 km2. It is the population density that is the main indicator of pressure on water resources, including irrigation and drinking water – see Table 3.

Table 3: Population density per 1 km2 in the Pyanj River Basin

Water Resource Zone

Years

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Badakhshan

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

Kulyab

78.3

79.8

81.5

83.8

85.7

87.6

89.3

91.2

93.2

95.4

97.6

Lower Pyanj

88.6

90.7

92.7

95.7

98.1

100.5

103.1

106.1

109.3

109.3

115.2

PRB average

18.1

18.5

18.9

19.3

19.7

20.1

20.5

21.0

21.4

21.9

22.4

Source: Regions of the RT 2014-2017. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan as of January 1, 2018. The Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Analysis of statistical information shows that for 2007-2017, the population density of the basin increased from 18.1 in 2007 to 22.4 persons/km2 in 2017 or by 23.6%. The relatively low level of population density in the basin compared to Tajikistan as a whole (61.8 persons/km2) is due to the fact that the basin area is 55% of the total area of the republic, and the population is about 20%.

The population forecast allows to calculate perspective indicators of pressure on water, both in terms of the demand for irrigation and drinking water. When calculating the projected population figures for the period until 2030, weighted average growth rates were used, both for the basin as a whole and for the rural and urban areas. This is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Population Forecast for the Pyanj River Basin 2020-2030 (thousands)

 

Years

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Badakhshan WRZ

Total

229.7

231.8

233.9

236

238.2

240.4

242.6

244.8

247.1

249.3

251.6

City

30.6

30.9

31.1

31.4

31.6

31.9

32.1

32.4

32.6

32.9

33.2

Village

199.1

200.9

202.8

204.7

206.6

208.5

210.5

212.4

214.4

216.4

218.5

Kulyab WRZ

Total

1249.9

1277.5

1305.7

1334.5

1363.9

1394

1424.8

1456.2

1488.4

1521.3

1554.9

City

240.4

244.5

248.7

253

257.3

261.8

266.3

270.9

275.6

280.4

285.3

Village

1,009.5

1,033

1,056.9

1,081.5

1,106.6

1,132.2

1,158.5

1,185.3

1,212.8

1,240.9

1,269.6

Lower-Pyanj WRZ

Total

385.6

395.6

405.9

416.4

427.2

438.3

449.7

461.3

473.3

485.6

498.2

City

40.5

41.9

43.2

44.7

46.1

47.6

49.2

50.8

52.5

54.2

56

Village

345.1

353.7

362.6

371.8

381.1

390.7

400.5

410.5

420.8

431.4

442.2

Total Pyanj River Basin

Total

1,865.2

1,904.9

1,945.4

1,986.9

2,029.3

2,072.7

2,117

2,162.4

2,208.8

2,256.2

2,304.7

City

311.6

317.3

323.1

329

335.1

341.3

347.6

354.1

360.7

367.5

374.4

Village

1,553.7

1,587.6

1,622.4

1,657.9

1,694.2

1,731.4

1,769.4

1,808.3

1,848

1,888.7

1,930.3

At the level of the water resource zones of the basin, the highest level of population density is observed in Lower Pyanj. For 2007-2017 The population density in this water resource zone increased from 88.6 to 115.2 persons / km2 or by 30%. The population density in the basin is mapped in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Population Density in the Pyanj River Basin

Based on the forecast calculations, the population of the basin by 2030 may amount to 2,304.7 thousand people, including 1,930.3 thousand in rural areas and 374.4 thousand in urban areas. In general, by 2030, compared with 2019, the population of the basin may increase by 26.2%, including in rural areas by 27% and urban by 22.4%. The predicted average annual growth rate can reach 2.1%, including 2.2% in rural areas and 1.7% in urban areas.

The increase in population with the unchanged area of the territories naturally increase the population density per square kilometer, which may affect the use of water resources. This is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Forecast Population Density in the Pyanj River Basin (2020-2030)

Item

Years

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Badakhshan

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.0

Kulyab

104

106

109

111

114

116

119

121

124

127

130

Lower Pyanj

124

128

131

134

138

141

145

149

153

157

161

Average PRB

23.9

24.4

24.9

25.4

26.0

26.5

27.1

27.7

28.3

28.9

29.5

Forecasts show that by 2030 a relatively high level of population density will be observed in the districts of Lower Pyanj WRZ – 161 persons/km2and in the Kulyab WRZ – 130 persons/km2.

Employment

Analysis of the labor market in Tajikistan, especially at the level of river basins due to the lack of accurate information is a very difficult task. The Agency of Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan mainly keeps records of the average annual population employed by workers and employees. Calculation of employment by the number of employed, does not take into account the level of employment in the private sector, labor migration, where most of the population in urban and rural areas currently works.

Based on the methodology of the Agency on Statistics, employed persons are those who have entered into a written employment contract, or a contract with the heads of enterprises for any form of employment. District statistics offices do not practically keep records of unemployed persons. Therefore, more reliable information on the employment of the population in both the formal and non-formal sectors of the economy can be obtained from employment level surveys at the household level. This information is summarized in Table 6.

Table 6: Number of Able-bodied and Employed by Water Resource Zones (2018)

Item

Water Resource Zones

Badakhshan

Kizilsu/Yaksu

Lower Pyanj

Number of able-bodied population

147,000

680,300

213,200

% of total population

65.2

56.8

58.2

Number of employed population

26,500

204,300

60,100

% of the working population

20.0

32.0

28.2

Source: Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017. Labor market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

According to from the Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and programs of socio-economic development of the regions, the share of the able-bodied part of the population to the total population in the Badakhshan WRZ is 65.2%, in Kulyab – 56.8% and in Lower-Pyanj – 58.2%. The share of the employed population for hire in the number of the working-age part of the population in the Badakhshan WRZ is 20.0%, in the Kulyab Zone – 32% and in the Lower Pyanj – 28.2%. It is also necessary to take into account the level of labor migration in the basin, see Table 7.

Table 7: Employment in the Pyanj River Basin in 2017 (%)

Sectors of Economy

Water Resource Zones

Badakhshan

Kizilsu/Yaksu

Lower Pyanj

Total

100

100

100

Real sector

7.6

74.0

71.2

Agriculture and Forestry

2.2

64.4

65.5

Fishery

   

0.03

Mining industry

0.4

0.8

0.6

Manufacturing industry

0.7

3.4

2.3

Electricity, gas and water supply

1.6

2.0

1.8

Building

2.7

3.4

1.1

Service sector

92.4

26.0

28.8

Wholesale and retail trade

10.3

2.2

3.1

Public administration

8.5

1.8

2.0

Education

43.3

14.0

15.0

Health and social services

19.6

6.0

6.6

Other community and social services

8.9

2.0

2.0

In other service sector organizations

1.8

Source: Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017. Labor Market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

Analysis of the employment structure for employment in the Badakhshan WRZ shows that the majority of the population is employed in the provision of services (92.4%), including in the education system – 43.3%, health care – 19.6%, wholesale and retail trade – 10.3%, public administration – 8.5% and 8.9% in the provision of public utilities and social services. Only 7.6% of the able-bodied part of the population is employed in the real sector of the economy.

In the Kizilsu/ Yaksu and Lower Pyanj WRZs, the majority of the population is employed in agriculture, in the Kulyab Zone – 64.4% and in the Lower Pyanj – 65.5%. The employment problems of the population, including its female part, continue to be one of the most acute and complex in Tajikistan. Most of the women work in low-paid areas of work: agriculture, education, health, etc. see Table 8.

 

Table 8: Gender Characteristics of Employment per Water Resource Zones (%)

Sectors of Economy

Badakhshan

Kizilsu/ Yaksu

Lower Pyanj

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

Real sector

11.5

3.2

70.3

72.3

68.2

73.2

Agriculture and Forestry

3.8

0.3

61.1

70.4

59.0

71.2

Fishery

   

0.05

0.02

0.1

Mining industry

   

1.0

0.15

1.5

0.3

Manufacturing industry

0.8

0.8

3.5

1.4

3.2

0.9

Electricity, gas and water supply

3.1

1.1

2.8

0.8

2.4

0.6

Building

3.8

1.1

1.9

0.3

2.0

0.2

Service sector

88.5

96.8

29.7

27.7

31.8

26.8

Wholesale and retail trade

13.1

6.3

4.5

1.2

4.9

1.1

Public administration

10.8

5.3

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.6

Education

39.2

48.4

16.2

13.7

16

13.9

Health and social services

13.8

27.4

4.7

8.7

6

8.7

Other services

9.2

8.4

2.2

1.8

2.7

1.5

Other service organizations

2.3

1.1

       

Source: Labor Market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

In the Badakhshan WRZ, out of the total number of employed persons, 42% are women. The majority of women are employed in the education – 48.4% and health care – 27.4%.

The women’s employment patterns in the Kizilsu/Yaksu WRZ and Lower Pyanj WRZ are virtually the same. The majority of women are employed in agriculture, education and health care. Some 72.3% of the women in the Kulyab WRZ and 73.2% in Lower Pyanj WRZ are engaged in agriculture. Despite that the number of women employed in agriculture in these zones is much higher compared to men due to high level of labor migration, according to official statistics, 88.5% of the heads of dekhkan farms are men.