BASIN POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHY AND EMPLOYMENT

Population

According to the Tajikistan Statistical Agency, the total population of the Basin as of January 1, 2018 was 1,751,500 people. The urban population is 295,300 (16.9%) and rural 1,456,200 (83.1%). Over the past 11 years (2007-2017), the population of the basin has increased by 334,600 people or 23.6%, including an increase in rural areas by 287,100 people or 24.6% and in urban areas by 47,600 thousand people or 19.2%. The average annual population growth rate was 2.1%, including 2.2% in rural areas and 1.7% in urban areas.

Administrative Division of the Basin

Geographically, the territory of the basin is part of the Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and the Khatlon Oblast of Tajikistan. On the territory of the basin there are 19 districts, 2 cities, 9 urban settlements and 122 jamoats. The administrative division of the basin is in Figure 1, while Table 1 shows the main features of the centers.

Table 1: Population of the Pyanj River Basin in 2018 (thousands)

Figure 1: Administrative Division of Pyanj River Basin

Demography

Table 2 shows the increase in population of the basin during the last 10 years.

Table 2: Population Dynamics of the Basin by Water Resource Zones (WRZ)

Source: Regions of the RT 2014-2017. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan as of 1 January 2018. The Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Another important indicator characterizing the relationship between water use and demographic indicators is population density per 1 km². It is the population density that is the main indicator of pressure on water resources, including irrigation and drinking water – see Table 3.

Table 3: Population density per 1 km² in the Pyanj River Basin

Source: Regions of the RT 2014-2017. Population of the Republic of Tajikistan as of January 1, 2018. The Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Analysis of statistical information shows that for 2007-2017, the population density of the basin increased from 18.1 in 2007 to 22.4 persons/km² in 2017 or by 23.6%. The relatively low level of population density in the basin compared to Tajikistan as a whole (61.8 persons/km²) is due to the fact that the basin area is 55% of the total area of the republic, and the population is about 20%.

The population forecast allows to calculate perspective indicators of pressure on water, both in terms of the demand for irrigation and drinking water. When calculating the projected population figures for the period until 2030, weighted average growth rates were used, both for the basin as a whole and for the rural and urban areas. This is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Population Forecast for the Pyanj River Basin 2020-2030 (thousands)

At the level of the water resource zones of the basin, the highest level of population density is observed in Lower Pyanj. For 2007-2017 The population density in this water resource zone increased from 88.6 to 115.2 persons / km2 or by 30%. The population density in the basin is mapped in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Population Density in the Pyanj River Basin

Based on the forecast calculations, the population of the basin by 2030 may amount to 2,304.7 thousand people, including 1,930.3 thousand in rural areas and 374.4 thousand in urban areas. In general, by 2030, compared with 2019, the population of the basin may increase by 26.2%, including in rural areas by 27% and urban by 22.4%. The predicted average annual growth rate can reach 2.1%, including 2.2% in rural areas and 1.7% in urban areas.

The increase in population with the unchanged area of the territories naturally increase the population density per square kilometer, which may affect the use of water resources. This is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Forecast Population Density in the Pyanj River Basin (2020-2030)

Forecasts show that by 2030 a relatively high level of population density will be observed in the districts of Lower Pyanj WRZ – 161 persons/km²and in the Kulyab WRZ – 130 persons/km².

Employment

Analysis of the labor market in Tajikistan, especially at the level of river basins due to the lack of accurate information is a very difficult task. The Agency of Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan mainly keeps records of the average annual population employed by workers and employees. Calculation of employment by the number of employed, does not take into account the level of employment in the private sector, labor migration, where most of the population in urban and rural areas currently works.

Based on the methodology of the Agency on Statistics, employed persons are those who have entered into a written employment contract, or a contract with the heads of enterprises for any form of employment. District statistics offices do not practically keep records of unemployed persons. Therefore, more reliable information on the employment of the population in both the formal and non-formal sectors of the economy can be obtained from employment level surveys at the household level. This information is summarized in Table 6.

Table 6: Number of Able-bodied and Employed by Water Resource Zones (2018)

Source: Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017. Labor market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

According to from the Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and programs of socio-economic development of the regions, the share of the able-bodied part of the population to the total population in the Badakhshan WRZ is 65.2%, in Kulyab – 56.8% and in Lower-Pyanj – 58.2%. The share of the employed population for hire in the number of the working-age part of the population in the Badakhshan WRZ is 20.0%, in the Kulyab Zone – 32% and in the Lower Pyanj – 28.2%. It is also necessary to take into account the level of labor migration in the basin, see Table 7.

Table 7: Employment in the Pyanj River Basin in 2017 (%)

Source: Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017. Labor Market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

Analysis of the employment structure for employment in the Badakhshan WRZ shows that the majority of the population is employed in the provision of services (92.4%), including in the education system – 43.3%, health care – 19.6%, wholesale and retail trade – 10.3%, public administration – 8.5% and 8.9% in the provision of public utilities and social services. Only 7.6% of the able-bodied part of the population is employed in the real sector of the economy.

In the Kizilsu/ Yaksu and Lower Pyanj WRZs, the majority of the population is employed in agriculture, in the Kulyab Zone – 64.4% and in the Lower Pyanj – 65.5%. The employment problems of the population, including its female part, continue to be one of the most acute and complex in Tajikistan. Most of the women work in low-paid areas of work: agriculture, education, health, etc. see Table 8.

Table 8: Gender Characteristics of Employment per Water Resource Zones (%)

Source: Labor Market of the Republic of Tajikistan. 2017. Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan

In the Badakhshan WRZ, out of the total number of employed persons, 42% are women. The majority of women are employed in the education – 48.4% and health care – 27.4%.

The women’s employment patterns in the Kizilsu/Yaksu WRZ and Lower Pyanj WRZ are virtually the same. The majority of women are employed in agriculture, education and health care. Some 72.3% of the women in the Kulyab WRZ and 73.2% in Lower Pyanj WRZ are engaged in agriculture. Despite that the number of women employed in agriculture in these zones is much higher compared to men due to high level of labor migration, according to official statistics, 88.5% of the heads of dekhkan farms are men.